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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 1-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to NO 15, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 30 for 15 yards (47-N.Gerry). PENALTY on NO-42-Z.Line, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NO 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 69, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 27, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model