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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 1-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to NO 12, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 20 for 8 yards (37-T.Sullivan).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.52 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model