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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 2

New Orleans Saints 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 18-K.Kirkwood for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 2, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model