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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(11:51) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill up the middle to NO 34 for 4 yards (77-M.Bennett). PHI-91-F.Cox was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.71 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model