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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 45

New England Patriots 41 – Los Angeles Chargers 22

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to LAC 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.29 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model