Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 20 at the 86

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New England Patriots 41

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 5-D.Jones punts 43 yards to NE 43, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Edelman ran ob at NE 48 for 5 yards. Penalty on NE-31-J.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.40 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 86, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model