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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 12

New England Patriots 38 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 3-S.Gostkowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model