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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 10

New England Patriots 35 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.18 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model