Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New England Patriots 35

(14:03) 5-D.Jones punts 34 yards to NE 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Edelman to NE 33 for 1 yard (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.10 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model