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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New England Patriots 35

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 5-D.Jones punts 43 yards to NE 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Edelman to NE 48 for 16 yards (51-K.Emanuel).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model