Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 76

New England Patriots 28 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to LAC 28, Center-49-J.Cardona. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at LAC 35. New England challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to LAC 28, Center-49-J.Cardona. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-59-A.McClellan at LAC 35. 59-A.McClellan to LAC 35 for no gain (11-G.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model