Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New England Patriots 28

(4:28) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to NE 12, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Edelman to NE 21 for 9 yards (42-U.Nwosu; 48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.97 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -3.06 EP

KICK -1.75 EP

23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
77% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model