Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New England Patriots 21

(9:19) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to NE 13, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.98 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.90 EP

KICK -1.68 EP

27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
73% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model