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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to KC 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.22 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model