Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(9:40) 2-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to KC 31, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-T.Hill to KC 30 for -1 yards (28-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.52 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model