Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(8:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to IND 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.53 EP
65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model