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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 25 yards to IND 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.24 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model