Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(3:52) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to IND 31, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model