Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 63

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to KC 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-T.Hill to KC 18 for no gain (28-C.Milton). FUMBLES (28-C.Milton), recovered by KC-39-Tr. Smith at KC 21. 39-Tr. Smith to KC 21 for no gain (26-C.Geathers).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.51 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model