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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to KC 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 46 for 26 yards (52-N.Goode). PENALTY on KC-39-Tr. Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.03 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 31, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP