4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 35

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle to IND 31 for 4 yards (26-C.Geathers, 96-D.Autry).

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.69 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model