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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 16-J.Goff up the middle to LA 48 for 3 yards (96-M.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model