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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 49

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to LA 44 for 5 yards (58-C.Littleton, 43-J.Johnson). PENALTY on LA-22-M.Peters, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.52 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model