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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 35

Dallas Cowboys 15 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to LA 35 for no gain (20-L.Joyner; 43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.65 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model