Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Dallas Cowboys 15

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 29 yards to DAL 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.84 EP
60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP

KICK -1.55 EP

27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
73% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model