Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Los Angeles Rams 20

(14:15) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to LA 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-J.Natson ran ob at LA 26 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model