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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(:44) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to LA 9, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 37-S.Shields to LA 26 for 17 yards (85-N.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.56 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -1.56 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model