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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 42

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:41) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to PHI 7, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-33-T.Mizzell.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP