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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 50

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(5:10) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to PHI 1, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.19 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model