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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 25

Chicago Bears 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-T.Hester), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.12 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model