Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Chicago Bears 6

(1:42) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to CHI 22, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.61 EP
65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model