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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 66

Chicago Bears 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(3:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to PHI 17, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP