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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 25

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.17 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model