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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 45

Chicago Bears 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(9:51) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to PHI 17, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.48 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model