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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(:26) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.93 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model