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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 58

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to PHI 19, Center-55-A.East. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 21 for 2 yards (39-A.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model