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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 32

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(2:53) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson sacked at PHI 40 for -8 yards (91-F.Cox).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP