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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 55

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(3:43) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass short right to 84-D.Kidsy pushed ob at PHI 47 for 8 yards (29-A.Maddox).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.16 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model