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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 43

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(10:46) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson sacked at WAS 46 for -11 yards (91-F.Cox). FUMBLES (91-F.Cox) [91-F.Cox], recovered by WAS-62-K.Fuller at WAS 46. 62-K.Fuller to WAS 46 for no gain (77-M.Bennett).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.79 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model