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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 1-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to WAS 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 46 for 11 yards (50-L.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model