Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 55

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(12:26) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to PHI 13, Center-55-A.East, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.12 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model