Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 87

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 8-T.Daniel punts 36 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham at HOU 49. 41-Z.Cunningham ran ob at HOU 49 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.93 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 87, worth -4.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model