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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 6

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.33 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 6, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model