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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 2-K.Forbath 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 7, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model