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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 5

Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 7-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 5, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP