Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 81

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 17

(14:30) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to HOU 35, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.20 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model