4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 39

Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 8-T.Daniel punts 32 yards to JAX 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-23-J.Bademosi.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model