Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-17-D.Chark. Jacksonville challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-53-B.Brown at HOU 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.46 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model