Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 72

Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:56) 8-T.Daniel punts 43 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 43 for 14 yards (23-J.Bademosi; 50-T.Adams). PENALTY on JAX-52-D.Payne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.73 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model