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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 21-N.Hines to TEN 35 for 6 yards (55-J.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model